Mitigation measures typically take about one week to affect the epidemic’s apparent growth rate at all, because today’s confirmed cases started incubating one week ago.Successful cases of COVID-19 mitigation have seen cases rise around 100-fold even after ultra-strict mitigations (massive testing plus near-total lockdown) are implemented. Quarantine numbers suggest that Biogen or Marriott employees were not placed under quarantine unless/until they tested positive. In MA in particular, Biogen employees were asymptomatic during the conference in which they infected ~50 coworkers.īoth Biogen and Marriott employees worked as normal for days to weeks before being asked to work from home. In general, recent evidence suggests that COVID-19 can exhibit substantial asymptomatic spread 4-in some environments, this accounts for the majority of spread. The community transmission likely involved a number of Marriott Long Wharf employees, although DPH has refused to comment on this. We could have been experiencing undetected, uncontrolled spread since Tuesday, when MA testing became a bottleneck, because it is likely that there was substantial community transmission stemming from the Biogen conference. MA: 100/day (see below) for ~5m metro areaĬA: thousands/day 1 for ~8m metro area (SF, containing half of CA cases)Īt 100 tests/day, it’s difficult to determine whether or not the spread has been controlled, because in the uncontrolled case, after a few days of growth (33% daily growth) the number of new cases per day would surpasses the number of daily tests MA could possibly run. Massachusetts’ presumptive-positive cases are likely substantially under-reported, because since Tuesday, we have been running 30x fewer tests than the other states with over 100 cases. This is good progress, but we’re still not as locked down as Daegu. Baker shut schools and restaurants and banned 25-person events. Yuri and I made a scenario visualization where you can look at what happens to your region with strong or weak quarantine measures: Don’t Be Italy. If so, we’re near the point where only near-complete social distancing (including shutdown of non-essential businesses) can avert a Wuhan-level epidemic. However, Massachusetts has been running about 30x fewer tests than those states, and appears to have been extremely tardy in responding to a super-spreading event at the Biogen conference.Īs a result, in a worst-case scenario, MA cases could be understated by a factor of 2-3 relative to other states by now. Massachusetts’ coronavirus numbers appear to be less concerning than the other three states with over 100 cases (California, Washington and New York)-they are lower and growing more slowly.
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